Classes from historical past recommend that wars have detrimental socioeconomic penalties for the affected areas. As an example, companies can undergo nice losses, decrease productiveness, and worse efficiency because of the human capital deficit brought on by army conflicts (Huber et al. 2021). On the similar time, wars additionally negatively have an effect on the labour market outcomes of compelled migrants, with refugees experiencing decrease earnings and decrease employment charges in comparison with native staff and financial migrants (Cortes 2004, Ruiz and Vargas-Silva 2018, Fasani et al. 2022). Whereas one can draw parallels from the previous with the continued Russian invasion of Ukraine, not all current proof would apply to Ukraine immediately. How has the Ukrainian labour market modified because the onset of the invasion? What occurred to the employment of Ukrainian refugees in host nations? In a current research (Pham et al. 2023), we offer solutions to those questions by analyzing the labour markets for the Ukrainian staff who left Ukraine (‘compelled migrants’) and those that remained (‘stayers’) throughout wartime.

For our evaluation, we used a dataset consisting of hundreds of thousands of on-line vacancies posted on This job aggregator collects and de-duplicates on-line ads posted by Ukrainian employers and worldwide employers focusing on job-seekers in Ukraine. Data on job location permits us to have a look at each home vacancies in Ukraine (i.e. jobs for stayers) and jobs in different nations (i.e. jobs for migrants). Since Poland was one of many most important locations for Ukrainian refugees, we deal with evaluating jobs in Ukraine and Poland solely.

Jobs in Ukraine versus jobs in Poland

Because the onset of the full-scale invasion, there was a sizeable enhance within the demand for Ukrainian staff in Poland. As proven in panel A of Determine 1, the typical variety of jobs in Poland obtainable to Ukrainians elevated from 100 monthly earlier than February 2022 to round 800-840 monthly in June–July 2022. The rise in demand was largest for jobs that require medium/high-level expertise and that are in historically women-oriented occupations (Determine 2).

Determine 1 Predicted variety of job advertisements by job location

Notes: This determine exhibits the expected variety of vacancies by job location. The adjusted predictions with 95% confidence intervals are reported.

In distinction, there isn’t a vital distinction within the predicted variety of on-line vacancies in Ukraine earlier than and after February 2022 (panel B of Determine 1). A geographical breakdown of vacancies in Ukraine exhibits the best quantity for jobs in Ukrainian areas sharing borders with Jap Europe and lowest for jobs in areas sharing borders with Russia. Why is that this so? There are a number of explanations. First, the ads would possibly intention to fill the prevailing jobs that had been left vacant due to the warfare (e.g. companies misplaced staff). Second, though many companies needed to droop enterprise in the beginning of the invasion, many subsequently relocated to Jap Ukraine and so started to rent staff in that area because the warfare continued.

Determine 2 Predicted variety of job advertisements by location and job heterogeneity

Notes: This determine exhibits the expected variety of vacancies by expertise classes (panels A-C) and occupational gender segregation (panels D-F). The dashed line represents the outcomes for jobs in Poland whereas the stable line represents the outcomes for jobs in Ukraine. The adjusted predictions with 95% confidence intervals are reported.

Talent necessities and wages supplied

We discovered that employers in Poland have neither elevated nor lowered their demand for tender expertise (language, communication, teamwork) or analytical expertise (panel A of Determine 3). Curiously, Ukrainian companies are inclined to require these expertise of their advertisements extra typically within the post-February 2022 interval, maybe as a result of they’re working in an irregular and troublesome setting. Nonetheless, the demand for these expertise doesn’t include affords of upper wages. The truth is, we discover the warfare has had a detrimental affect on the wages supplied to Ukrainian staff, no matter work location and job profile. The autumn in wages supplied is bigger in Ukraine relative to Poland and the lower is barely much less for medium/high-skilled occupations.

Determine 3 Predicted share of advertisements requiring tender and analytical expertise

Notes: This determine exhibits the expected share of vacancies requiring tender expertise. The adjusted predictions with 95% confidence intervals are reported.


Classes from historical past appear unlikely to offer us with an correct prediction of the affect of the warfare with Russia on labour markets for Ukrainian staff. Though there are some optimistic indicators of accelerating inclusion of Ukrainian refugees into the Polish labour market, extra must be completed to enhance their labour market outcomes, for instance by serving to refugees enhance their language and different expertise. Furthermore, the suggestive proof of upper talent necessities by companies in Ukraine and the lack of human capital causedby the warfare pose a significant problem for rebuilding the Ukrainian labour market within the post-war period. On-line vacancies present a helpful information supply to offer fixed and up-to-date evaluation of the labour markets to assist coverage and interventions.


Cortes, Ok E (2004), “Are refugees totally different from financial immigrants? Some empirical proof on the heterogeneity of immigrant teams in america”, Assessment of Economics and Statistics 86(2): 465-480.

Fasani, F, T Frattini and L Minale (2022), “(The Battle for) Refugee integration into the labour market: Proof from Europe”, Journal of Financial Geography 22(2): 351-393.

Huber, Ok, V Lindenthal and F Waldinger (2021), “Discrimination, managers, and agency efficiency: Proof from “Aryanizations” in Nazi Germany”, Journal of Political Economic system 129(9): 2455-2503.

Pham, T, O Talavera and Z Wu (2023), “Labor markets throughout warfare time: Proof from on-line job ads”, Journal of Comparative Economics.

Ruiz, I and C Vargas-Silva (2018), “Variations in labour market outcomes between natives, refugees and different migrants within the UK”, Journal of Financial Geography 18(4): 855-885.